A struggle for direction in Maritime Governance
By Deniece M. Aiken*
The voice of the Caribbean carries weight in climate diplomacy because of the Region’s vulnerability. But sympathy alone is not a strategy. Preparation is.
Drafting laws is like plotting a course at sea. It is not enough to know where you want to go. You must also know what forces your vessel can withstand.
This is the reality that now confronts the world’s maritime powers as they steer through the International Maritime Organization’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF). The aim of this effort is to propel global shipping towards carbon neutrality in less than 30 years. For the Caribbean, this initiative is vital. Indeed, it is an important component for sustainability of the Caribbean’s maritime sector.
The Caribbean’s relationship with the sea is intimate and inexorable. Caribbean national economies float on it. Trade, tourism, fisheries and energy all depend on the carriers that cross the Caribbean daily. But, perhaps the greatest of Caribbean paradoxes is to be found in geography. Described and classified generally as ‘small island developing states’, Caribbean territories are large ocean states. Exclusive Economic Zones stretch expansively across square kilometres and, in the case of many Caribbean territories, requires jurisdiction over more sea than land. But, the same ocean that defines Caribbean wealth also defines the region’s vulnerability.
Climate risks for the Caribbean region arise from the sea. Intensifying hurricanes, ocean warming, coral bleaching and coastal erosion are all symptoms of a crisis that originates offshore. The ocean is the region’s greatest resource but also its most volatile threat. It is with this knowledge that the NZF is even more important to the Region and why the approach taken must be both strategic and self-aware.
In the recent IMO debate on the NZF, Caribbean leaders faced a political riptide. Days before the IMO vote, they were warned that supporting the framework could invite “reconsideration” of trade and other privileges. It was a blunt reminder that, for all the talk of sovereignty and self-determination, Caribbean policy is still shaped by external pressure. The recent NZF debate revealed not just institutional weakness but geopolitical vulnerability. On one side, representatives were faced with the moral imperative of combatting climate change; and on the other side, the economic reality of diplomatic fractures, trade and other sanctions; and, higher overall costs, all with already stretched budgets. The Caribbean’s diplomats were left stranded between principle and practicality. To vote in favour of the NZF risked backlash from major partners but opposition risked moral hypocrisy and broken alliances. And so, predictably, many states chose silence, a familiar posture of ‘small-island diplomacy’.
Price of passivity
Silence has a cost. On review of what compliance under the NZF looks like, the facts are clear. Cleaner fuels and carbon-tracking systems are not metaphors. They are financial invoices. They mean expenditure of millions for port upgrades, new bunkering facilities, digital reporting tools, and retraining of personnel. They mean higher freight rates for importers; tighter margins for exporters; and, impossible trade-offs for governments that are already balancing debt, disaster recovery and social need.
To add to this reality, the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Declaration of October 2025 warned that the Region “lags in access to finance flows” under global climate mechanisms. Yet, the greater cost is not compliance. It is passivity. When small states stand still, the tide does not stop. It moves on. If Caribbean states continue to allow others to define the rules, the Region will ultimately find itself paying for transitions it did not design … including carbon penalties and retrofitting of ports to meet standards financially and infrastructurally above and beyond reach. If the Caribbean, as a regional advocate for climate justice, fails to chart and pursue its own maritime objectives, its credibility as a global force is effectively diminished.
Complacency is particularly perilous considering the landmark advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice in July 2025, which confirmed that all nations have a binding legal duty to prevent climate harm. That opinion, a historic victory for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) diplomacy, was culmination of years of advocacy by Caribbean and Pacific leaders. But it also raised the stakes. Failure to act decisively could one day be used as evidence in international courts.
The Route Ahead
The tone emanating from the recent IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting, is mixed. Analysts have outlined three possible paths forward: (1) that the framework will be adopted within the next twelve months with only minor technical revisions; (2) that the text will be reopened for renegotiation, reigniting old disputes and prolonging the process; and, the third and most troubling, (3) that the entire effort may stall or collapse altogether, leaving global shipping adrift without a unified decarbonisation plan.
The IMO’s leadership urged restraint and patience, framing the delay as procedural rather than political. For them, it is a moment to regroup, refine and build consensus. For major economies, such pauses are routine and relatively harmless. They have the bandwidth which includes the research institutes, lobbyists, and resources, to absorb delay without losing direction. For the global shipping industry, this is time to model costs, test technologies, and prepare for what comes next. For Caribbean territories however, this pause can and must, mean something more. It is a rare window to act deliberately rather than defensively. A chance to strengthen our institutions before the next negotiation rather than react after it has passed. Time may not be abundant but it is still ours to use.
Caribbean awareness
If the Caribbean, as a Region, does not know its position, it cannot hope to negotiate it.
Caribbean countries must be situationally aware. What are the strengths, vulnerabilities, capacity gaps, and the external pressures that shape regional decisions. Awareness is the first step toward agency.
If the Caribbean, as a Region, does not know its position, it cannot hope to negotiate it. That means mapping readiness with honesty: assessing the state of ports and maritime administrations, the scale of investment needed for clean-fuel infrastructure, the policies that must be reformed, and the alliances that can be formed. It also means recognising that while the Caribbean states are small in size, they are large in moral leverage. That leverage can only be used effectively when grounded in data and coordination, not sentiment.
The Region can focus on building technical capacity, training maritime administrators, surveyors, and negotiators to understand the evolving framework in detail. It can also invest in preparedness, identifying the upgrades and financing needed for compliance. As well as, intentionally forge unity, crafting a single Caribbean negotiating position that reflects the shared realities rather than borrowed rhetoric. Most importantly, it can turn moral authority into strategic influence.
The Caribbean’s voice carries weight in climate diplomacy because of its vulnerability. But sympathy alone is not a strategy. Preparation is.
Time used well can be transformative. This pause offers a chance for the Caribbean Region to collectively chart its own course; to ready vessels before the next tide of negotiations rises. If the Caribbean is situationally aware, coordinated, and deliberate, delay need not be defeat. It can be the tide that turns the current. []
** FIRST PUBLISHED: Portside Caribbean, December 1, 2025. ________________
*Dr. Deniece M. Aiken, maritime governance scholar; legal expert and consultant (law, policy and maritime innovation); president of WISTA Jamaica; and member of the European Society of International Law, is currently engaged in advanced maritime legal research and evaluation and implementation of projects in the European Union. []
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